Monday, June 30, 2008

Republicans made a mistake nominating Christine Webb to face Brian Baird

Ok, I'll be honest, I don't know all that much about Christine Webb. My knowledge begins and ends with that she came into the race against Brian Baird very late, and seemingly to attempt to beat out a less than establishment Republican that had been making waves in the Ron Paul sense.

My argument is that only a Ron Paul type Republican could beat Brian Baird this time around. Well, a financed Paul Republican, but that would require some support from the local Republican establishment and maybe they're not ready for that yet.

Ok, here's my argument: Baird is a great in-district guy. No one on his staff is allowed to run for local office (no link for this fact, I just know its a fact). There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but it emphasizes that Baird doesn't like to face off against local Republican leaders in the field.

So, the typical "he's forgotten about us" argument won't work against Baird. Therefore it would also be hard to gain traction against him with the local chamber of commerce, Lion Clubs folks.

Cheryl Crist is making a run at Baird from the left, but with Olympia only being a very small portion of the district, and Baird being an incumbent from her own party, she'll have a harder go at it.

So, where does that leave us? People not taken to insurrection (chamber types) are out. The progressive community can't make a run at Baird from the left, so the best candidate would be from the right who could attract protest votes from the left and mobilize disaffected conservatives.

If someone is to knock off Baird, it will only be an anti-war righty, Michael Delavar.

By the way, over at Politics is a blood sport blog, they seem to be pointing to a inter-party fight down in Clark County between the Delavar folks and Webb folks. Maybe Delavar can pull it off.

6 comments:

Aneurin said...

Interesting take, but a couple of points:

1. Pam Brokaw was a Baird staffer and is running for county commission. There is at least one other Baird staffer that was angling to run a few years back for something.

2. Delavar, near as I can tell, John Birch Society material. Even local Republicans have their limits on how far right they'll go.

3. I've been harsh on Cheryl Crist in the past, but she's improved markedly on the stump. Still though, with Top 2, coming in a strong third will be vindication.

I don't think anyone knows who Christine Webb is in Clark County. The Republicans have made it a habit of running younger candidates (Joseph James, Jamie Herrera) in all of these races to re-build the brand.

Emmett said...

I think the important phrase for Brokaw is "was a Baird staffer." If I'm not mistaken, she had to leave Baird's staff to run.

Anonymous said...

oh crap

I hate having to "settle" in this race. I am still pissed as hell at Baird for his lame ass support of Tom DeLay in the Terry Schiavo debacle, and numerous blue dog votes.

I know, I know, Olympia is just a teeny part of his otherwise very conservative district. It is still frustrating.

Ann in Olympia

Lew Waters said...

As one of the Clark County Conservatives you mention, I have to say the main thing against Delavar is his lack of experience. I have no reason to believe he is anything but a good person and as a pilot, a responsible person.

But, how does that relate into the experience necessary to represent the 3rd District? It doesn't.

His close ties to the Ron Paul mentality doesn't help him down here either.

If he desires a career in politics, perhaps he should try for a more local office first and get his feet wet.

Christine Webb, on the other hand, does have experience in the political field and working with government agencies.

Both seem to have good conservative values, but Christine sees the need for winning the War on Terror, where Michael follows Ron Paul's call for abandonment of yet another struggling ally.

As a Viet Nam Veteran, I can tell you that abandonment of allies is very costly as well as showing the world America can't be counted on.

Baird has realized this, hurting him with the anti-war Democrats and Ron Paul supporters, but helping him with some conservatives.

Baird will be hard to unseat, but not impossible. Running on an anti-war platform that seems aligned with the likes of Code Pink, Cindy Sheehan, Jane Fonda and the usual anti-war left surely will not set well with conservatives.

Whether the State GOP made a mistake remains to be seen. But Christine has more grassroots support than many realize.

Anonymous said...

Ha! I don't think so.

Anonymous said...

Webb is OK, but Delavar clearly has a much better handle on the nuances involved in many important issues like energy, subsidies, the US constitution, and the war(s) in the Iraq. And he's got amazingly passionate grass-roots support. You don't get that kind of support unless you've something that galvanizes voters. Webb, on the other hand, appears at best to have lukewarm support among the rnak-and-file voters here in Clark County. And you can't beat Baird without Clark County. Delavar will have my vote.